If This Poll Is Accurate, Trump Will Be Reelected Easily

Trump’s approval in this poll was boosted by black voters. According to Rasmussen, a slight majority of black voters approve of Trump, and a higher percentage of minority voters approve of the president.

Two months ago, black likely voter approval for President Trump in the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll was at 40 percent. In August 2019, black voter approval for Trump stood at 26 percent.
Trump received 8 percent of the African American vote in 2016.

I was very much skeptical of Rasmussen’s 40 percent approval number two months ago. Approval that high from black voters would make Trump’s reelection all but certain. While I question the results of this poll, I do believe that it is possible that it could be more accurately capturing the trend of black approval for Trump. If Trump’s approval from likely black voters was at 26 percent a year ago, it is certainly possible that the economic improvements black Americans experienced prior to the pandemic could have resulted in a surge of support.

I don’t see it hitting 40 percent or even 26 percent, let alone 50 percent. But is it possible that Trump could get 10 to 12 percent of the black vote in November? I can see that.