Third-party voters from 2016 are breaking for Biden, imperil Trump margins in battlegrounds

However, the Trump campaign said it believes it will tap into enough new voters — polls suggest Trump is gaining ground with minority voters, especially Latinos and African-Americans — to overcome any third-party swing votes to Biden.

During the 2016 election, the number of third-party voters far exceeded President Trump's margin of victory in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls from 2020 found that third-party voters from 2016 say they back Biden by a 2-to-1 margin. The polling found 47% percent said they plan to vote for Biden, 20% plan to vote for Trump, and 33% are unsure or say they’re backing "another candidate.”

"Here's why this is significant: In 2016, Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes, while the combined Johnson/Stein vote was 223,599. (So Biden getting 47 percent of that third-party vote to Trump's 20 percent easily overturns that '16 margin.)," NBC News reported on Monday. "In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, while there were 196,656 Johnson/Stein voters. (Again, Biden winning those third-party voters by a 2-to-1 margin reverses that outcome.) And in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 22,748 votes, and the combined Johnson/Stein total was 137,746. (Ditto: Hillary Clinton would likely be president today if she had won those third-party voters by a 47 percent to 20 percent split.)"